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By JCI Worldwide & KARV Global
With the 2024 election behind us, President-elect Trump set to take office on January 20, 2025, with a Republican-controlled Senate, and likely a slim Republican majority in the House (of 2-3 seats), we wanted to take a moment to highlight some of what we believe will be the important outcomes, trends, policy shifts and political implications that will impact business, consumers and international relations that may prove critical to some of our friends, clients and colleagues.
The Resurgence of Neo-liberalism
A seismic shift occurred on election day, where the American electorate, tired of the political status quo, exhausted from COVID and an economy that serves the wealthy said they want a change. And regardless of their personal feelings about the candidate, they voted their pocketbook and their future.
And so, after four years of globalization—emphasizing free trade, market reliance, and a "worker-centered" economic policy aimed at raising wages not just for Americans but globally—things are projected to change.
Say good-bye to those policies and welcome in the new generation of neo-liberalism which is focused on deregulation, privatization, austerity, and trade liberalization — these are fundamental pillars of what Trump campaigned on and what is expected in his administration.
The Rising Importance of State Policies
For most of the public they will not see major changes for a while. Prices will not fall for some time, but the economy and inflation are moderating. So, with continued likely dysfunction in Washington DC, a lot of attention will be focused on the states.
For businesses, this could mean fewer regulations, but it also means a big adjustment to new (and sometimes stricter) state policies. This year, inflation and immigration topped the list of concerns, while climate change – once a major talking point – wasn’t front and center. Even ESG (environmental, social, governance) priorities are facing pushback from both sides, as some believe these issues have pulled parties too far from core voter concerns. California, a state that has dominated environmental trends for decades, passed its first-ever "Climate Bond," allocating over $10 billion to address climate impacts and promote alternative energy production.
Healthcare made a quite evident appearance on the ballots - in California, Proposition 34 now requires healthcare providers to spend more carefully, and the state increased the reimbursements to hospitals and doctors for its Medi-Cal program. South Dakota passed a measure introducing Medicaid work requirements, with exceptions for students, parents with young children, and others. The issue of abortion is also evolving post-Roe v. Wade, with ten (10) states having considered alternative policies. Marijuana decriminalization continues to make waves, while psychedelics were a step too far for Massachusetts.
With a new Trump administration coming in, expect some regulatory shifts. The EPA, for example, could lighten up on enforcement, which might ease pressure on chemical and construction industries, among others. Meanwhile, the ongoing conversation of PFAS (“forever chemicals”) litigation continues to impact HVAC, food packaging, and similar industries.
The Rise (and Importance) of Alternative media
Elections are all about choices – ones that affect our daily lives. And in presidential elections voters want to vote for something. It has become clear that alternative media such as podcasts are now key to communicating with audiences. Harris’ appearance on the Call Her Daddy podcast and Trump’s appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience proved to be the highest-profile appearances either candidate made during their election run. In addition to those appearances, both candidates – particularly Trump – took to the podcast circuit to make his case to Americans. This highlights the continued decline in relevance for legacy news outlets, and an increasing influence of individual voices who command an audience of millions.
Wage and Education Reform Was Top of Mind
In a sign of economic uncertainty on the state level, Arizona and California voters turned down a minimum wage increase, marking a shift towards more moderate policies. Also in California, with rising crime rates, voters passed Proposition 36, which reclassifies some misdemeanor offenses as felonies. This measure rolls back some earlier reforms, showing a move toward tough-on-crime policies.
With the return of school choice with more states looking to diversify education options and the use of public money for funding. Some interesting ballot measures include: Nebraska’s Referendum 435: Approved public funding for private schooling. Colorado’s Amendment 80: Gave each K-12 student the right to choose between neighborhood schools, charters, private schools, and homeschooling. Kentucky's Amendment 2: Opened the door for state funding for private education options. California passed the state's largest school bond for infrastructure looking to upgrade its schools from the mid-70s era buildings that make up the majority of the state schools.
Priorities of the New Administration
So, what’s ahead? A Trump administration is likely to bring fewer regulations, a focus on tariffs and trade, and limited military intervention. We can expect there will be no additional substantial Ukraine funding packages on the horizon, as President Trump has openly stated that he wants to see the Ukraine war end and is expected to attempt to negotiate a conclusion of that war. On the Middle East, he will take a hard line on Iran and will likely attempt to tighten sanctions or use additional options at his disposal. On Israel, he has also stated he wants Israel to end the war soon and will likely push for escalation in Gaza to force an ending. President Trump will continue to take a hard line on China and continue the policies that began under his administration and furthered by Biden.
To help understand the specific policy directions of the new administration, we have laid out the following lists of priorities that are reflective of recent statements and policy proposals from the president-elect and the Republican majority.
Foreign Policy
Further unilateral moves in international relations, potentially including withdrawing from more treaties and agreements.
Expect there will be no additional substantial Ukraine funding packages; Continuing escalation with Iran, potentially leading to full-blown conflict.
Full-throated support for Israel and expect a renewed effort to have a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia.
Continue to take a hard line on China policies that began under his first administration.
It’s unclear exactly how Trump would reshape foreign policy in a second term, but it would likely involve a continuation of his "America First" approach (Bloomberg).
Potential for further isolationism and nationalism, including more tariffs and trade wars.
Healthcare
Full speed-ahead on dismantling the Affordable Care Act (ACA) through both legislation and legal challenges.
Addressing chronic illness by cleaning up ingredients in food, addressing preventative care, and addressing the obesity and autoimmune crisis’ in America.
Potential to transform Medicare into a voucher program, fundamentally altering the nature of the entitlement.
Medicaid could be further transformed into a block grant program, giving states far more flexibility and potentially leading to benefit and eligibility reductions.
States may see shifts in federal funding and regulations, influencing Medicaid expansion and healthcare access. Depending on federal leadership, there could be encouragement for states to adopt or reject policies around healthcare coverage.
Environment and Energy
Continued rollbacks of environmental regulations aimed at combating climate change.
Efforts to redirect Inflation Reduction Act funds to fossil fuel programs in key swing states.
Promotion of fossil fuels at the expense of renewable energy sources.
Potential withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord.
Judicial Appointments
A second term would allow Trump to appoint even more conservative judges to federal benches, including potentially 1-2 more Supreme Court justices.
These appointments could shape the legal landscape for decades, impacting rulings on everything from abortion to voting rights.
Economy and Taxes
Renewal of the 2017 tax cuts that primarily benefit corporations and the wealthy.
Trade: Trump has promised sweeping new tariffs on imports in a second term (Politico).
Deregulation across industries could continue unabated, particularly in finance.
Trump has criticized Democrats' handling of the economy and has shared his positions on what should be done on economic issues (CBS News). His campaign tax and spending proposals are estimated to increase primary deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next 10 years (Wharton Budget Model).
Social Policy
Potential rollbacks of protections and recognition of transgender individuals.
Potential for further restrictions on access to abortion.
Efforts to move aggressively on school vouchers and lawsuits to kill school equity mandates.
Immigration
Further restrictions on both legal and illegal immigration, potentially including more stringent travel bans and increased funding for a border wall.
He has promised the largest deportation of immigrants in American history (Politico). Potential for aggressive ICE raids and deportations to continue.
Little to no movement on providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already in the U.S.
Trump did not enact any measures to increase access to H-1B visas for high-skilled immigrants during his first term, and a second term may be similar (Forbes).
While the election is behind us, the repercussions are only now becoming clearer and will continue to be scrutinized over the next several months and years. We will be watching.
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